This research represents an attempt to apply the theory of retrospective voting to the issue of turnover among Kentucky school district superintendents. The analysis tests the hypothesis that poor school district performance should increase superintendent performance. The hypothesis is tested using accountability data compiled by the Kentucky Department of Education. The analysis reveals somewhat mixed support for the hypothesis. Different performance measures have different kinds of impact. Schools with students scoring high on math and writing were more likely to experience superintendent turnover than other school districts were. The index scores for science and social studies had a negative, statistically significant effect upon turnover. The district spending measure had a negative, statistically significant coefficient, indicating that the bigger spending districts had somewhat lower turnover than did other districts. Surprisingly, the superintendent salary measure is positively and significantly associated with turnover.
Battle, Martin and Clinger, James C.
"Holding School Leaders Accountable: Estimating the Effects of Retrospective Evaluations of Kentucky School District Superintendents,"
Commonwealth Review of Political Science: Vol. 4:
1, Article 3.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.murraystate.edu/crps/vol4/iss1/3