Northern Kentucky University
Modeling Disease Spread in Raccoons
Institution
Northern Kentucky University
Faculty Advisor/ Mentor
Andrew Long
Abstract
Rabies is an epizootic disease, infecting many species of mammals and resulting in almost certain death. Raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies was absent from the state of Connecticut prior to 1991; that year, the disease emerged and steadily progressed from the western to the eastern part of the state. Data were collected from brain tissue obtained from dead raccoons between 1991 and 1995. Animals were submitted by private citizens, veterinarians, law enforcement officials, and town or state officials throughout Connecticut, and tested by qualified laboratories. We model the space-time spread of the rabies virus across the state, compare the disease spread analysis to previously reported analyses, and use the model of the spread to synchronize the data so as to generate an empirical model of the local effect of the epizootic at the town level (which we compare to the predicted theoretical model). In our most recent analyses we look at geographical barriers to disease spread (e.g. rivers) and attempt a predictive model with regard to these barriers. Three major rivers run north to south within the state of Connecticut: using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), we demonstrate that rivers appeared to slow the spread.
Modeling Disease Spread in Raccoons
Rabies is an epizootic disease, infecting many species of mammals and resulting in almost certain death. Raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies was absent from the state of Connecticut prior to 1991; that year, the disease emerged and steadily progressed from the western to the eastern part of the state. Data were collected from brain tissue obtained from dead raccoons between 1991 and 1995. Animals were submitted by private citizens, veterinarians, law enforcement officials, and town or state officials throughout Connecticut, and tested by qualified laboratories. We model the space-time spread of the rabies virus across the state, compare the disease spread analysis to previously reported analyses, and use the model of the spread to synchronize the data so as to generate an empirical model of the local effect of the epizootic at the town level (which we compare to the predicted theoretical model). In our most recent analyses we look at geographical barriers to disease spread (e.g. rivers) and attempt a predictive model with regard to these barriers. Three major rivers run north to south within the state of Connecticut: using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), we demonstrate that rivers appeared to slow the spread.