Title

Predicting Interest Rates: An Analysis of Treasury Bill Rates Using Time Series Analysis

Presenter Information

Wesley StrattonFollow

Academic Level at Time of Presentation

Senior

Major

Applied Mathematics

Minor

Spanish

List all Project Mentors & Advisor(s)

Dr. Manoj Pathak

Presentation Format

Oral Presentation

Abstract/Description

This study will analyze treasury bill interest rates. Treasury bills are non-coupon paying bonds that are considered a rather safe, or low risk, investment as they are backed by the United States government. Treasury bill interest rates tend to be rather stable and do not fluctuate much, therefore, we will be analyzing several years of biweekly rates given by the United States treasury. The objective of the study is to fit the time series data using linear time series methods, as appropriate, and use the fitted model to predict short term interest rates. The data will be analyzed using standard time series models, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.

Start Date

16-11-2018 3:30 PM

Fall Scholars Week 2018 Event

Honors College Senior Theses

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Nov 16th, 3:30 PM

Predicting Interest Rates: An Analysis of Treasury Bill Rates Using Time Series Analysis

This study will analyze treasury bill interest rates. Treasury bills are non-coupon paying bonds that are considered a rather safe, or low risk, investment as they are backed by the United States government. Treasury bill interest rates tend to be rather stable and do not fluctuate much, therefore, we will be analyzing several years of biweekly rates given by the United States treasury. The objective of the study is to fit the time series data using linear time series methods, as appropriate, and use the fitted model to predict short term interest rates. The data will be analyzed using standard time series models, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.