Sigma Xi Poster Competition

Title

Understanding Potential Profitability Estimates for Western Kentucky Grain Production

Academic Level at Time of Presentation

Junior

Major

Agribusiness Economics

List all Project Mentors & Advisor(s)

Dr. Naveen Musunuru

Presentation Format

Poster Presentation

Abstract/Description

Understanding Potential Profitability Estimates for Western Kentucky Grain Production

Abstract

Profitability is an ongoing problem for grain farmers all across America and even the world. Without profitability, no grain farm can continue to operate. Ultimately, profitability to grain farmers is a matter of their livelihood. However, what many grain farmers are lacking is a way to predict profitability and plan accordingly. Budgets can provide an outline and tentative plan for farmers to stick to, but market price can ultimately overrule these budgets. The purpose of this particular project is to predict profitability within the Western Kentucky Grain Markets, specifically corn and soybeans, using historical budget, yield, and price data from 2007 to 2021. Throughout this project, a number of simulations were conducted providing for a greater number of profit possibilities to construct the range. The profit ranges were then converted to Probability Distribution Functions giving a range of probabilities from 0 to 100% These graphs along with the supplemental simulation data have the potential to be utilized by grain producers to aid in the prediction and preparation for various market conditions influenced by external factors for any given growing season.

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Sigma Xi Poster Competition

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Understanding Potential Profitability Estimates for Western Kentucky Grain Production

Understanding Potential Profitability Estimates for Western Kentucky Grain Production

Abstract

Profitability is an ongoing problem for grain farmers all across America and even the world. Without profitability, no grain farm can continue to operate. Ultimately, profitability to grain farmers is a matter of their livelihood. However, what many grain farmers are lacking is a way to predict profitability and plan accordingly. Budgets can provide an outline and tentative plan for farmers to stick to, but market price can ultimately overrule these budgets. The purpose of this particular project is to predict profitability within the Western Kentucky Grain Markets, specifically corn and soybeans, using historical budget, yield, and price data from 2007 to 2021. Throughout this project, a number of simulations were conducted providing for a greater number of profit possibilities to construct the range. The profit ranges were then converted to Probability Distribution Functions giving a range of probabilities from 0 to 100% These graphs along with the supplemental simulation data have the potential to be utilized by grain producers to aid in the prediction and preparation for various market conditions influenced by external factors for any given growing season.