Honors College Senior Thesis Presentations
Examining the Relationship Between Politics and the Economy
Academic Level at Time of Presentation
Senior
Major
Economics
Minor
Actuarial Science; Applied Statistics
List all Project Mentors & Advisor(s)
Dr. Beau Sauley; Dr. Simone Silva
Presentation Format
Oral Presentation
Abstract/Description
The purpose of this project is to quantify the relationship between the US political environment and American economy. First impacts of U.S. presidential elections on the American economy are analyzed. The project will analyze the time effects of elections on multiple economic indicators. Average returns on the following investments will be observed: Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, gold, and silver. Additionally, the price of crude oil and the consumer price index will be studied. Time dummy variables will then be incorporated to show whether an election took place within the given time period, splitting the data into two groups: election year and non-election year. Average economic changes for these two groups will be compared to determine whether any statistically significant differences are present between groups. Additionally, using the same data, the effect of economic changes on the president’s approval rating will be observed. This analysis will highlight trends in the U.S. economy relative to shifts in the political environment and ultimately provide insight into ideal investing habits, determining how these habits should change as political changes occur.
Spring Scholars Week 2024 Event
Honors College Senior Thesis Presentations
Examining the Relationship Between Politics and the Economy
The purpose of this project is to quantify the relationship between the US political environment and American economy. First impacts of U.S. presidential elections on the American economy are analyzed. The project will analyze the time effects of elections on multiple economic indicators. Average returns on the following investments will be observed: Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, gold, and silver. Additionally, the price of crude oil and the consumer price index will be studied. Time dummy variables will then be incorporated to show whether an election took place within the given time period, splitting the data into two groups: election year and non-election year. Average economic changes for these two groups will be compared to determine whether any statistically significant differences are present between groups. Additionally, using the same data, the effect of economic changes on the president’s approval rating will be observed. This analysis will highlight trends in the U.S. economy relative to shifts in the political environment and ultimately provide insight into ideal investing habits, determining how these habits should change as political changes occur.